What statistics predict for the lifetime of an Imation CD-ROM?

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So what do the statistics predict for the lifetime of an Imation CD-ROM?

To get a lifetime prediction, one needs to make several assumptions. One is the maximum BLER error rate that a disc should have. For our lifetime estimate, we chose an average of 50 errors/second. This is much lower than the 220 errors/second that the specification allows. The other key assumption that we made is that 99.5% of the discs should be readable at the stated lifetime. Using these assumptions, this study predicts that the lifetime of the Imation CD-ROM sample discs, if stored at 30^oC (86^oF) and 90% humidity, would be at least 100 years. Of course, Imation does not warrant that our CD-ROMs will last 100 years. The actual lifetime of Imation CD-ROMs depends on use and storage conditions. Improper handling, or exposure to improper environments such as corrosive chemicals can significantly affect the actual life of any given disc. However, given the proper storage conditions, there is every reason to conclude that Imation CD-ROM discs will last longer than the computers that they run on.

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